Posted on August 20, 2024
| 5 minutes
| 912 words
| Jenniffer Sheldon
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 3, 2024): One of the most prominent films to emerge from the festival circuit is Brady Corbet’s historical Holocaust drama “The Brutalist,” which A24 acquired. Starring Adrien Brody, Guy Pearce, and Felicity Jones, this 215-minute epic has been touted by some pundits as a likely contender for Oscar recognition. However, its lengthy runtime could pose a challenge. To secure a strong position in the Oscar race, the film may need unanimous support from major critics’ groups, such as the New York, L.A., and National Society of Film Critics—similar to the path taken by the Japanese film “Drive My Car,” which was nominated for four Oscars, including best picture.
Another notable acquisition is Tim Fehlbaum’s tense thriller “September 5,” which Paramount Pictures picked up. If the studio can launch a solid campaign in the coming weeks, the film could be a strong contender for multiple Oscar nominations, particularly in the acting and screenplay categories, with a potential shot at the top prize.
Looking ahead, we are still eagerly awaiting the first official reviews of several high-profile films, including Steve McQueen’s World War II drama “Blitz,” James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown,” Ridley Scott’s epic sequel “Gladiator II,” Jon M. Chu’s musical adaptation “Wicked” and Sony Pictures’ effects-driven drama “Here.”
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello
2
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick
3
“Anora” (Neon) Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan
4
“The Brutalist” (A24) Nick Gordon, D.J. Gugenheim, Andrew Lauren, Trevor Matthews, Andrew Morrison, Brian Young
5
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) Agustín Almodóvar, Esther García
6
“Conclave” (Focus Features) Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross
7
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer
8
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) Fred Berger, Bob Bookman, Timothée Chalamet, Alan Gasmer, Alex Heineman, Peter Jaysen, James Mangold, Jeff Rosen
9
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) Jason Blumenfeld, Peter Rice, Jason Reitman, GIl Kenan
10
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
Eligible Titles (Best Picture)
** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
More Information (Oscars: Best Picture)
2024 category winner: “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
